Glenroy Brown, May 15,
2011
Possible impact on Jamaica and the Caribbean.
The latest information coming out
of the Colorado State University is that the Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be well above average
activity for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. Professor William Grey and
his team continue to look at uncertainty about ENSO (El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation) and
the maintenance of anomalously warm
Tropical Atlantic SST (sea
surface temperature) conditions.
Information obtained through
March 2011 indicates that the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season will have significantly more activity than the average
season. They estimate that 2011
will have about 9 hurricanes, 16 named storms of which 5 will become major (Category 3-4-5)
hurricanes.
They have decreased their
seasonal forecast slightly from the early December forecast, due to anomalous warming in the
eastern and central Tropical Pacific and cooling in the Tropical Atlantic.
Also, they expect current La Niña
conditions to transition to near-neutral during the heart of the hurricane
season. However, overall conditions remain
conducive for a very active hurricane Season.
Jamaica Weather Report
is an established Jamaican web site that targets internet audience both locally and abroad who
are seeking weather related information about the island of Jamaica.
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